Welcome to "Chatter from the Pressbox", the website dedicated to the Pressbox of the Frisco RoughRiders, the Double-A affiliate of the Texas Rangers.

Today's Matchups Around the Ranger's System

Today's (5/20) Match-Ups Around the Ranger's System

Round Rock: Martin Perez (3-3 5.27) vs. Fresno Grizzlies: Andrew Kown (3-1 2.61) @ 1:00 PM CT

Myrtle Beach: Kyle Hendricks (1-4 2.91) @ Wilmington Blue Rocks: Sugar Ray Marimon (3-0 2.65) @ 12:30 PM CT

Hickory : Santo Perez (2-2 6.19) @ Asheville Tourists: Daniel Winkler (4-2 6.06) @ 1:05 PM CT



Monday, February 25, 2013

Poised for a Breakout Season: Kyle Seager


Talk about some of the best young players in the game and Kyle Seager’s name isn’t likely to come up. In 2012 he hit only .259 and put up just a .738 OPS.  On top of all of this, he plays for the Seattle Mariners and sits in the middle of an offense that had the 4th lowest runs per game last season in baseball.

But, look beyond that, and you see a player that is poised for a big season in 2013.

Seager did have 35 doubles, 20 home runs, and drove in 86 runs in 2012. He did steal 13 bases, and he had 251 total bases. His 56 extra base hits put him tied for 8th among third basemen in baseball. And he’s done all of this while playing half of his games in Seattle. Which, brings me to the reason that I believe he is ready for a breakout season.

The Seattle Mariners have brought their outfield walls in a bit this season. The left center field fence was brought in from 390 feet to 378 feet. Center field was brought in from 405 feet to 401 feet. Right center field was brought in from 385 to 381 feet. The deepest point, 409 feet, will now be 405 feet. The fences down the line will remain what they were, 331 feet to left field and 326 feet to right field, respectively.

Why does this matter in terms of Kyle Seager? Well, for one, Seager is a career .298 hitter with an .834 OPS away from Safeco Field, as opposed to his .215 batting average and .607 OPS at home. His power has been completely sapped at home (.311 slugging percentage) versus on the road (.501 slugging percentage). Of his 23 career home runs, 18 of them have come on the road. Of his 72 extra base hits, just 25 of them have come at home.

At 25 years old, Kyle Seager is just beginning to get close to his prime. In his rapid rise from 3rd round pick out of the University of North Carolina in 2009 to playing on the infield for the Seattle Mariners, Seager hit .328 with an .875 OPS over 1,245 plate appearances in the minor leagues. While his true power never really showed in the minor leagues (he had only 22 home runs), Seager has always been a player with good gap power and an advanced approach at the plate. Because of that, along with his contact ability, Seager is a player who’s power could play up at the big league level.

With the acquisitions of Michael Morse and Kendrys Morales, the Mariners also have gotten more fire power in their lineup to support Kyle Seager. In 2012, Seager hit .280 with men on, including .308 with runners in scoring position. He should be hitting in the middle of an improved Seattle Mariners offense.

Sunday, February 24, 2013

No Easy Out: A Look at Baseball's Most Underrated Offense

Talk to people about the best offenses in the game and people will probably start with teams like the Yankees, Angels, Tigers, and Cardinals. They might throw in the Blue Jays or Nationals if the mood strikes enough. And there are plenty of reasons to pick those teams. Big names, big game players, and they've been in plenty of big games over the last couple years. Some made big acquisitions this offseason, and others didn't need to. If they stay healthy, any of those teams could lead baseball in runs scored and each of them brings a different dynamic to the table.

But then there is another name I will throw into the argument... the Arizona Diamondbacks. 

Last year the Diamondbacks ranked eighth in baseball in runs scored per game with 4.53. So it's not exactly like suggesting the Seattle Mariners as the best. But, after dealing Justin Upton, I doubt many would give them any chance without looking at it. They certainly are not one that pops off the top of your head as one of the best. 

In terms of depth, the Arizona Diamondbacks can rival any lineup in the game. They literately don't have an easy out until their shortstop position and likely 8th hitter in the lineup. They have guys who can run, guys who can hit for power, and guys who can get on base in the lineup. 

Last year strikeouts were an issue for them, and they probably will still be an issue for them in 2013. Like the Braves, who I talked about before, the Diamondbacks do have players who are going to strikeout. 

But, let's look at their lineup individually. 

Projected Lineup: 

1. CF Adam Eaton (Bats LH)

2012 MLB Numbers: 103 PA .259 AVG .382 OBP .412 SLG .794 OPS
2013 Bill James Proj.: 582 PA .291 AVG .358 OBP .418 SLG .776 OPS


Not to be confused with the former San Diego Padres pitcher, you will find few players in baseball that have more energy on the field than the outfielder Adam Eaton. The 24 year old center fielder was recently written about by Jerry Crasnick on ESPN.com here. You will have an extremely difficult time finding a more productive player in minor league baseball over the last three years, in fact you probably won't be able to no matter what age or level. In 1,451 minor league plate appearances over the last three years, Eaton has hit a robust .355 with an incredible .456 on base percentage and .510 slugging percentage. Oh and did I mention that he can run? Adam has 98 steals in 131 attempts over those three seasons, including 44 in 55 attempts in 2012. 

In the 2012 season, Eaton hit .375 with a .456 on base percentage between Double-A and Triple-A. He had 47 doubles, 5 triples, and 7 home runs with 130 runs scored. To the point: Even if he drops 100 points in on base percentage points at the major league level, how valuable will he still be at the top of the order with very good speed and an all out playing style.

2. 3B Martin Prado (Bats RH)

2012 MLB Numbers: 690 PA .301 AVG .359 OBP .438 SLG .796 OPS
2013 Bill James Proj.: 621 PA .291 AVG .347 OBP .425 SLG .772 OPS

The key major league player that the Diamondbacks acquired in the Justin Upton blockbuster deal, Martin Prado is a good baseball player that is very good at knowing his job. One of the best #2 hitters in the game, Prado can do a lot of things when he's at the plate. And with 270 or more total bases in two of the last three years, Prado is not just a slap hitter with no power. Since becoming a regular in 2009, Prado has hit .294 with a .778 OPS over the time period. More balanced though, Prado has averaged 36 doubles, 3 triples, and 12 home runs. He has averaged 42 walks to just 66 strikeouts during the time frame as well. He is exactly what you look for in a prototypical #2 spot. A doubles hitter with a bit of pop, a high average, and tough to strikeout.

3. C Miguel Montero (Bats LH)

2012 MLB Numbers: .286 AVG .391 OBP .438 SLG .829 OPS
2013 Bill James Proj: .272 AVG .357 OBP .435 SLG .792 OPS


One of the best catchers in the game last season, Miguel Montero has continued to be consistent at the plate over the last four years. Montero topped 80 RBI for the second straight years in 2012 and set career bests in walks (73) and on base percentage (.391).  The left handed hitting catcher has hit at least 15 home runs in three of the last four years, including a career best 18 in 2011. I put him in the three spot due to his .283 average and .361 OBP over the last four seasons. 

4. 1B Paul Goldschmidt (Bats RH)

2012 MLB Numbers: .286 AVG .359 OBP .490 SLG .850 OPS 
2013 Bill James Proj: .283 AVG .375 OBP .501 SLG .876 OPS   

A star in the making in the middle of the Diamondbacks lineup, Paul Goldschmidt burst onto the radar late in the 2011 season and during the playoffs with his prodigious power. Few question whether Goldschmidt will hit for power at the big league level. The 25 year old first baseman hit 20 home runs in 2012 and added in 43 doubles and a triple for good measure. He also fell two steals short of being baseball's first first baseman to hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases in a season since Derrek Lee hit 31 home runs and stole 21 bases in 2003.

5. 2B Aaron Hill (Bats RH)
2012 MLB Numbers: .302 AVG .360 OBP .522 SLG .882 OPS
2013 Bill James Proj: .270 AVG .327 OBP .444 SLG .771 OPS


Coming off one of the quietest stellar seasons in baseball in 2012, Aaron Hill will have to once again prove that his 2012 season was no "fluke". An interesting career thus far, Hill has had two very good seasons and another quality season in his career. Yet, he's also put together some seasons where you aren't sure if he even showed up to the park. The second baseman had quality years in 2007 (.291 avg., 41 doubles, 17 HR), 2009 (.286 avg., 36 home runs, and 108 RBI), and 2012 (.302 avg., 44 doubles, 6 triples, 26 HR, and 85 RBI). Even still, though, the two time Silver Slugger award winner has flown under the radar due to his other not so good years. In 810 plate appearances since coming over to Arizona in a trade in 2011 though, the 30 year old has hit .304 with 56 doubles, 8 triples, 28 home runs, and an .881 OPS.

6. LF Jason Kubel (Bats LH)

2012 MLB Numbers:
.253 AVG .327 OBP .506 SLG .833 OPS

2013 Bill James Proj.: .259 AVG .333 OBP .465 SLG .798 OPS

Another player in the line up that has been pretty consistent at what he adds to a club. Jason Kubel set a career best with 30 home runs in 2012 and drove in 90 runs as well for Arizona. His 64 extra base hits were the second most for his career in a season, as were his 90 RBI and .506 slugging percentage. Since 2008, Kubel has put together a .269 batting average and averaged 22 home runs and 84 RBI a season. He also has averaged an .815 OPS and 117 OPS+ during the same time frame.

7. RF Cody Ross (Bats RH)

2012 MLB Numbers: .267 AVG .326 OBP .481 SLG .807 OPS
2013 Bill James Proj.: .254 AVG .321 OBP .444 SLG .765 OPS

When the Arizona Diamondbacks signed Cody Ross to a three year deal this offseason, many people in baseball were wondering what the Diamondbacks were doing. Even if they were going to trade Upton, they had plenty of outfield depth in their organization and adding an outfielder was one of the last things they needed to do. Still, Cody Ross brings a quality veteran and a potential veteran leader to the clubhouse. He's a good, hard nosed player that has put together some solid seasons throughout his career and has playoff experience after leading the San Francisco Giants to the 2010 World Series title. In 528 plate appearances for the Boston Red Sox in 2012, Ross hit .267 with 34 doubles, 22 home runs, and 81 RBI. His 113 OPS+ was the best of his career with at least 200 plate appearances. Still, Ross has been consistently around there since 2008 and he has three 20 home runs seasons to his credit. Even more important though, Ross has had at least 50 extra base hits in three of the last five years. Ross is also one of baseball's best hitters against left handed pitching, as he has a .284 batting average and .928 OPS against southpaws throughout his career.

8. SS Didi Gregorius (Bats LH)

2012 MLB Numbers: .300 AVG .300 OBP .300 SLG .600 OPS
2013 Bill James Proj.: N/A

The likely starting shortstop, although that's not set yet, Didi Gregorius was the center piece that the Diamondbacks acquired in the three team deal that sent pitcher Trevor Bauer to Cleveland and outfielder Shin-Soo Choo from Cleveland to Cincinnati. Gregorius is the only non-pitching spot in the lineup that looks like a possible "easy" out. What he lacks with the bat, however, the Curacao native more than makes up for with his defense. Between Double-A Pensacola and Triple-A Louisville, Didi hit .265 with 21 doubles, 11 triples, and seven home runs. It marked his second consecutive season with an OPS above .700 in the minor leagues.


As you can see, there is no real superstar in the Arizona Diamondbacks lineup. Justin Upton won't be in their lineup anymore. They aren't going to be the easy pick to be the best offense in baseball and they aren't going to jump out at you on paper. However, as the games are played, the Diamondbacks feature a lineup that could very well have seven players in their lineup with an OPS around or above .800. They have plenty of power with four players capable of hitting 20-25 home runs or more. They feature a potential star in Paul Goldschmidt and an underrated star in Miguel Montero. They have players with big time experience and they have players who are going to give their all out everyday.

In other words, they have baseball's most underrated lineup.

Saturday, January 26, 2013

Justin Upton To Arizona: Will the Upton Brothers Thrive or Will They Strikeout?

By now, everybody in the baseball world knows about the blockbuster trade that took place on Thursday. The Atlanta Braves pulled off a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks for one of the most talented players, Justin Upton, that changed teams this offseason. And with the deal and a mega signing earlier this offseason, the Atlanta Braves have set themselves up for one of the most intriguing stories over the next few years.

In the outfield for the Atlanta Braves will be Jason Heyward in right field, B.J. Upton in center field, and Justin Upton in left field. Yes, B.J. and Justin are brothers and former #2 and #1 overall picks, respectively. I believed that seeing the Upton brothers play alongside each other at some point would be very cool, but I never thought that it would happen this soon.

From the moment that I saw the Justin Upton trade, I loved it for Atlanta.

I still love it as a stand alone deal. The Braves got a potential MVP caliber player who is 25 years old for what amounted to nothing that they absolutely had to keep. They didn't deal Julio Teheran and they didn't trade Andrelton Simmons. They kept the chips that are their most pivotal.

Ultimately, though, I can't help, but look at this offseason from a stand point where the Braves didn't truly solve any of their problems on offense. If you looked at their 2012 offense, the team had three major areas of concern, two of which were related.


Problems 

Situational Hitting

There was no doubt that this was one of the main areas of the Braves problems in 2012. Their team batting average with runners in scoring position (RISP) was a National League worst .231. The team hit just .244, fourth worst in the NL, with men on base. They ranked 11th with a .245 in High Leverage situations. Down the stretch, it became increasingly apparent as the team hit just .234 with a .683 OPS in the second half, including .228 with a .635 OPS in September. The team was only kept in contention due to extremely good pitching.



Strikeouts

The Braves had the fourth most strikeouts in the National League in 2012. Sure, strikeouts count as any other out, but when you don't put the ball in play, you can't help the team in any way. 


Too Left Handed Heavy

The most talked about problem over the last few years with the Braves has been that their lineup is too left handed heavy. With Bourn, Heyward, McCann, Freeman, etc. plus a switch handed Chipper Jones, the Braves saw a lineup that was too heavy towards one side.



Solutions (or lack thereof)

Situational Hitting

Chipper Jones retired with a .257 average with RISP in 2012. But, he was very good with a .337 average in 2011 and .293 in 2010.

Michael Bourn has left via free agency and with him, his .308 batting average with RISP in 2012. The high average compared to his overall average is no fluke either, as Bourn is a career .294 hitter with RISP, despite a career batting average of .272.

Then the Braves traded Martin Prado, who had an average of .275 with RISP in 2012. Not great, but clearly above the team average of .231. Prado is also a career .289 hitter in high leverage situations.


Strikeouts

This is where the Braves really managed to hurt themselves this offseason. If strikeouts were bad last year, then nobody has seen anything, yet. As Lary Bump told me, the most popular sound in Atlanta might be "strike three" this year. Chipper Jones was a star hitter who never struck out 100 times in a season in his career. There were only a handful of seasons where he struck out more than he walked. Replacing a player who's retiring is always tough, though, so it was going to be tough no matter what.

Michael Bourn was leaving free agency and taking with him his 155 strikeouts in 2012 and average of 135 over the last three years. There was the possibility of cutting down on strikeouts there... until the Braves decided that wasn't necessary.

Martin Prado struck out just 69 times in 2012 in 690 plate appearances and walked 58 times as well.

Take a look at the new team that the Braves will be fielding in 2013 and their average number of strikeouts over the last three years (unless otherwise noted):

C- Brian McCann (88)
1B- Freddie Freeman (136 in his two full seasons)
2B- Dan Uggla (158)
3B- Chris Johnson (132 last year; 326 in 348 career games)
SS- Andrelton Simmons (21 in 189 plate appearances last year; their one saving hope in this stat)
LF- Justin Upton (133)
CF- BJ Upton (165)
RF- Jason Heyward (124)
Pitchers (124 including 144 last year)

Add that up and that is already 1,081 strikeouts without including the bench and the extra play that Andrelton Simmons would have. Last year alone the players combined for 1,121 strikeouts without including extra play for Simmons and the bench. Last season the team had 1,289 strikeouts overall.


Too Left Handed Heavy

This is the one area that they had problems with before that they shouldn't have problems with now. By adding three right handed hitters in the Upton brothers and Chris Johnson, the team has built a more balanced lineup. Looking at it right now, the lineup that I would want to use is:

1. Simmons RH
2. B Upton RH
3. Heyward LH
4. J Upton RH
5. Freeman LH
6. Uggla RH
7. McCann/catcher LH
8. Johnson RH
9. Pitcher


New Issues

The Braves lineup last year, even amid struggles, had a certain balance to it and seemed like a lineup that had a nice balance of talent and guys who filled their roles very well. This year's lineup seems to be almost an opposite of that. It has a lot of power and a lot of guys who are ultra talented, but will be put out of place in their role.

My questions are at the top of the lineup where I don't believe that Andrelton Simmons will be ready to be a top of the order guy and where B.J. Upton does not fit as the prototypical #1 or #2 hitter. The Braves will lose anywhere from 20-40 on base points at least depending on where they put Upton at the top... if they do. If they don't, there doesn't seem to be two players who could easily climb into the #1 or #2 spots in the order.

The Braves have gone from having an elite base stealer in Michael Bourn and a great average/non-strikeout/solid role player in Martin Prado in the #2 hole to having more or less a rookie, albeit a very talented player, in Andrelton Simmons and a very low OBP type player in B.J. Upton, albeit he's an elite basestealer as well.


There's the thought by me and others that the Braves will hope that the Upton brothers, two of the most talented high schoolers to come out over the last decade, will thrive off each other in their new environments. They are leaving possibly toxic situations and getting a fresh start together. It will make for a great story and both players are still young enough that the best part of their careers could very well be right in front of them.

The question is will they thrive together or strikeout?